2008 Buffalo Keeper League Team Draft Analysis
“Putting the Anal back in Analysis”
Tim Shand
Mets
History
Exp: 6th
Titles: 0
Avg Finish: 7.6 (5th)
Best: 3rd 2003
Worst: 11th 2005
Average Moves: 49 (11th)
Average Trades: 4.6 (8th-t)
2007 Finish: 9th
2007 #1: Roy Oswalt
2007 #18: Ryan Braun*
2006 #1: Grady Sizemore
2006 #18: Connor Jackson
Stats
Pick: 11th
Overall Rating: 2.94 (9th)
Offense
: 2.89 (9th)
Infield + Catcher: 2.89 (9th)
Outfield + Utility: 2.88 (7th-t)
Pitching
: 2.99 (8th)
Starting: 3.12 (5th)
Closing: 2.58 (11th-t)
TDA in a Nutshell:
Keepers: Miguel Cabrera 6, Brad Hawpe 9, Cory Hart 10, Kazmir 11
Blue Chip: None
Best Pick: Peralta 15th
Worst Pick: Kinsler 3rd
Overrated: Sizemore
Underrated: Dave Bush
Not on my team: Johjima
Not on any team: Coute
Sleeper: Peralta
Super Sleeper: Kuroda
Bust: Gagne
Major Bust: Carlos Lee
Rotation: Smoltz, Kazmir, Kuroda, Escobar Bush, Gallardo
Closers: 1.75 Capps, Gagne (.75)
Overview:
Entering his sixth season of competition, Shand is the only manager to never change his team name. Every spring you can always look for two things. An increase in dead animals along the side of the road and Shand to don the team name Mets. A lifelong middle of the pack owner, Shand has shown glimpses of success. More often than not, his performance continues to be as dull as his team name.
What Went Right?
With the new rules in place for 2008, a popular move was to trawl for super keepers. Shand was no exception. Neglecting the present in a desperate attempt to build for the next ten years. Shand enters the season with two closers, but questions about Gagne’s effectiveness still loom. Cabrera was the biggest fish in a puddle. Having moved to the American League he is now a member of the most potent lineup since the Yankees had when acquired Bobby Abreu. Smoltz, once a member of the fabled trio of starters that dominated for the Braves for fifteen years, is still quite effective and shows few signs of father time catching up. Kuroda is a solid sleeper candidate who was not over spent on.
What Went Wrong?
Shand’s initial picks were expensive fetishes. Grady Sizemore, a legitimate thirty/thirty candidate is nearing his potential ceiling. More than likely he could have slipped to the second round. Kinsler, while one of the best second basemen on the board and a repeat twenty/twenty candidate went a bit high for most team’s liking. Gallardo has been bitten by the injury bug this spring, but was otherwise a good pick. Escobar was given grievance leave to mourn for and bury his dead right arm. Aside from the injuries, the remainder of the draft is filled out with a combination of sleepers, prospects and underachievers. Not exactly the right formula for a competitive season.
Hitting Analysis
Overall, Shand has moderate team speed with three, twenty plus steal outlets. The same can be said with regards to power. Seven twenty-five to thirty-five home runs hitters, but no standouts. For all the fanfare and hype surrounding Miguel Cabrera he has yet to prove himself as an exceptional standout. He has not been able to top forty homeruns or like Chipper did, or go thirty/thirty like David Wright. Instead his value and worth have been directly tied to his keeper value. Keep in mind he is only twenty-four, so those seasons may be on the horizon. For the time being he is simply a very talented player at a very deep position. Carlos Lee’s numbers slipped in the post steroid era crack down. Dropping thirteen homeruns and nine stolen bases from 2006 to 2007. Jhonny Peralta never would have been able to live up to Robz’s second round hype unless he put up A-Rod numbers in 2006. Now a fifteenth round choice with twenty homerun power he ought to be able to live up to much more moderate expectations. Johjima’s best days are already behind him. In truth they were never really good, but he is an okay option behind the plate. Votto and Bruce are wildcards and were part of the record breaking number of Reds prospects taken on draft day. A surge from one team has not been seen since the Met’s trotted out Paul Wilson, Jason Isringhausen and Bill Pullsipher.
Pitching Analysis
Kazmir’s arm has begun to wear after being asked to carry the Rays rotation for the past few years. Now facing injury concerns, teams should be aware of the danger of naming keepers so early in the spring. Smoltz continues to chug along, putting up similar numbers that he did when he was in his prime, nearly a decade ago. Kelvim Escobar was originally given a favorable write-up, having developed into a good top of the rotation pitcher. He has since encountered serious arm injury that may jeopardize his career. Gallardo looks to improve on what was an impressive 2007. He will have a tough time duplicating his numbers, but should throw effectively. Dave Bush has shown signs of regression but still has the potential to be a middle of the rotation starter. Kuroda also projects well since being imported from Japan. Then again, so did Irabu. Matt Capps is the lone capable arm in the Pirates and should account for saves in 95% of the Pirates forty victories. Gagne was shaky down the stretch in Boston. With former closer Derrick Turnbow waiting in the wings to reclaim his job, Gagne will have to be effective out of the gate. What is surprising was Gagne’s failure as a set up man, yet he still thrived as a closer in Texas. Apparently some players are just programmed to fill a specific role.
Overall/Prediction
Shand is amongst the most reclusive and enigmatic of managers. Seldom posting. Seldom fielding an elite team. The only two sure predictions for this franchise are that he will not change his team name and he will finish in the middle of the pack.