2008 Buffalo Keeper League Team Draft Analysis
“Putting the Anal back in Analysis”Matt Whelan
Reigning Champ
History
Exp: 7th
Titles: 2-- 2007 & 2005
Avg Finish: 3.4 (1st)
Best: 1st 2007 & 2005
Worst: 11th 2006
Average Moves: 82 (4th)
Average Trades: 4.6 8th-t)
2007 Finish: 1st
2007 #1: Johan Santana
2007 #18: Seth McClung
2006 #1: Alex Rodriguez
2006 #18: Anthony Reyes
Stats
Pick: 12th
Overall Rating: 2.82 (11th)
Offense
: 2.82 (13th)
Infield + Catcher: 2.80 (10th)
Outfield + Utility: 2.83 (9th)
Pitching
: 3.24 (2nd)
Starting: 2.56 (13th)
Closing: 3.58 (5th)
TDA in a Nutshell:
Keepers: Bedard 4, Beckett 5, David Wright 7, Carlos Pena 10
Blue Chip: (2) Beckett and Saito
Best Pick: Hermida 11th
Worst Pick: Markakis 2nd
Overrated: Carlos Pena
Underrated: Markakis
Not on my team: Stephen Drew
Not on any team: Chris Ray
Sleeper: Kearns
Super Sleeper: Turnbow
Bust: Lyon
Major Bust: Carlos Pena
Rotation: Beckett, Bedard, Buehrle, Cabrera and Homer Bailey
Closers: 2.0 Saito, Lyon (.75), Turnbow (/25)
 
 
 
 
Overview:
Now an established member of the Buffalo Based Keeper League, Matt Whelan has quickly risen through the ranks. From lowly expansion team, to two time league champion and commissioner. Once again with title in hand, Matt hopes to avoid the trouble that fell on him after his last championship.
What Went Right?
Matt entered the draft with the top of his pitching staff already filled out. A huge bonus on draft day, allowing him to concentrate on other areas. One of those areas was the bullpen, where he walked away with two complete closers filling three full roster spots. Matt also found good value out of his late picks. Kearns and Ankiel have a lot of pop in their bats, but have had difficulty maintaining consistency. Turnbow will likely get some save opportunities at some point. Even longtime fetish player, Daniel Cabrera was taken late in the draft. A definite reach in the fourteenth round, but considering the devotion Matt has shown to this O, it is a considerable victory.
What Went Wrong?
While Matt drafted solid players, the top half of his draft is littered with players who ought to have been drafted later. B.J. Upton, 2008’s Grady Sizemore, was undoubtedly high on everyone’s board. Only Matt had him going in round one. The same statement could be made of Nick Markakis and Eric Byrnes (fellow speedster Juan Pierre was taken in the eighth. The cause of this was Matt’s lack of fourth and fifth round picks. Had these players been taken one round later there would not be as much of an issue. And there would be one more stud player in the lineup.
Hitting Analysis
The biggest question at the plate for ‘08 is Carlos Pena. Will he come close to his 2007 mashing. Probably not, but it was worth a tenth round keeper slot. After Pena and his forty-six bombs there is a considerable drop off in power numbers. Matt will have seven or eight players who will hit twenty to thirty homeruns. Thirty-five may be a bit much to ask from one single player. RBI may also be scarce, with few 100 club members. Overall Matt should have a solid team OBP, with few blemish players.
Byrnes will be the primary weapon on the base paths, with peripheral help from Wright and Upton. He will need these three to contribute as much as they can, since six players on the roster accounted for seven total stolen bases in all of 2007.
Pitching Analysis
The BB Boys, Beckett and Bedard are true aces; both should post 3.30 ERA’s, 1.15 WHIp’s and 200 K’s. There is concern for Beckett’s health. Having outgrown his blister problems, Josh now has to face a grown up injury, a bad back. This should clear up during the season. Come October, Beckett will be back to throwing heat and ungodly breaking stuff. Of course, playoff stats do not count. Daniel Cabrera has been described by some as Matt’s Contreras. In fact, Matt may suffer from the same syndrome as a battered house wife. No matter how many times Cabrera gets torched, it is never his fault and Matt is right there to give him another chance. After years of merciless beatings Matt has taken, maybe Danny is really changed this time. Otherwise it is time to move on. Bailey is not a strikeout pitcher and has since been dropped. Buehrle fluxgates between extremes. Very mediocre or very bad.
Saito, in a very short time has become an elite closer. Lyon will most likely lose his job, probably by the third week of April, while Turnbow may regain his closer status, but not till later in the season.
Overall/Prediction
History has shown that Matt is prone to shitting the bed after a league championship. That may be in the league’s best interest, as he can then focus his energies on swearing and working on the website.