2008 Buffalo Keeper League Team Draft Analysis
“Putting the Anal back in Analysis”Mike Dunlap
W. 2008
History
Exp: 7th Season
Titles: 2
Avg Finish: 5.4(3rd)
Best: 1st 2003 & 2004
Worst: 10th 2006 & 2007
Average Moves: 80 (5th)
Average Trades: 5.6 (6th-t)
2007 Finish: 10th
2007 #1: Alfonso Soriano
2007 #18: Ken Griffey Jr.
2006 #1: Johan Santana
2006 #18: Reggie Sanders
Stats
Pick: 4th
Overall Rating: 2.26 (15th) Out of 5.00 Max Points
Offense:
0.51(15th)
Infield + Catcher: 0.69(15th)
Outfield + Utility: 0.32(15th)
Pitching
: 4.02(1st)
Starting: 3.69(1st)
Closing: 5.00(1st-t)
TDA in a Nutshell:
Keepers: Javier Vazquez-10, Brandon Phillips-14, Oliver Perez-15
Blue Chip: (1) Johan Santana
Best Pick: Rich Harden-11
Worst Pick: Brett Myers-4
Overrated: Rich Hill
Underrated: Vazquez
Not on my team: A. Reyes
Not on any team: Brandon Phillips
Sleeper: Tony Pena
Super Sleeper: Heath Bell
Bust: Brett Myers
Major Bust: Oliver Perez
Rotation: Santana, Vazquez, Rich Hill, Zambrano, Harden, O. Perez
Closers: (5.00) Wager, F. Cordero, Isringhausen, Percival, Wood (.75) T. Pena (.25)
Overview:
From the inception of the Dunlap Franchise, team owner Mike Dunlap has always considered himself the smartest owner in the room, even though he does not show up for drafts. Twice he has proved it, winning the league in back to back years, with the now outlawed Dunlap Strategy TM. His latest attempt, a lineup card filled out with all pitchers and one hitter has many other owners clamoring that he is making a mockery of the league. A league that once allowed unlimited whoring and draft pick trades.
What Went Right?
A major part of his strategy was signing a full arsenal of closers in order to insure that he wins the coveted 16 points for that category. How many are enough though? The second part is elite starting pitching, which he also achieved. He has since traded for Brian Roberts, a base stealer with decent a respectable On Base Percentage (OBP). As far as picks are concerned, only one jumps out. Injury prone Rich Harden in the eleventh round should be a keeper for years to come.
What Went Wrong?
Dunlap’s arithmetic. It has been said before and will be repeated, “This strategy can not work.” For argument’s sake, Dunlap will be granted 15’s in wins, ERA, strikeouts, WHIp and saves totaling 75 points. Add in 15 additional points for stolen bases and OBP. Finally 1 point each for the punted categories runs, homeruns and RBI. The sum is 108 points. That total should firmly entrench Dunlap on the upper side of the middle of the pack. Within two to three weeks Mike will find himself so far behind in the cumulative hitting stats that the next five months will be an exercise in futility.
Hitting Analysis
Since the March 16th draft, Dunlap, always a shrewd GM has trades keeper Brandon Phillips for Brian Roberts. An upgrade for two components of his strategy, OBP and stolen bases. Barring Roberts turning black and morphing into Rickey Henderson of the mid eighties, do not look for a win in the stolen bases category.
Pitching Analysis
Dunlap’s 2008 version will introduce yet another term into the Fantasy Baseball Lexicon, Intra-squad Whoring. Having so many pitchers, a lot of good starts will be missed poor outings as well. Wins, saves and strikeouts will all be won in a romp. As the season progresses, Dunlap will find that ERA and WHIp are not as easily to manipulate with starting pitchers as it was with middle relievers. Regardless, Dunlap should claim victory if he is only able to dominate all five pitching categories.
Overall/Prediction
Many pundits predict that once he achieves the minimum number of innings pitched a massive fire sale will ensue. Desperately trying to catch up on the offensive side of the game. As talented a number cruncher and team owner he is, Dunlap will find it near impossible to dig out of the hole he began on March 16th.