2008 Buffalo Keeper League Team Draft Analysis
“Putting the Anal back in Analysis”
Steve
Dr. Detroit
History
Exp: 4th
Titles: 0
Avg Finish: 7.0(5th)
Best: 2nd 2006
Worst: 12th 2005
Average Moves: 43(13th)
Average Trades: 2.7(13th)
2007 Finish: 7th
2007 #1: Jimmy Rollins
2007 #18: Tim Lincecum
2006 #1: Carl Crawford
2006 #18: Dan Haren
Stats
Pick: 13th
Overall Rating: 2.98(6th)
Offense
: 2.86(9th-t)
Infield + Catcher: 2.94(7th)
Outfield + Utility: 3.03 (4th)
Pitching
: 3.10 (4th)
Starting: 2.64 (12th)
Closing: 4.47 (3rd)
TDA in a Nutshell:
Keepers: Zimmerman 12, Victorino 14, R. Soriano 14 Lincecum 17
Blue Chip: None
Best Pick: Furcal 6th
Worst Pick: E. Encarnacion 11th
Overrated: Todd Helton
Underrated: Josh Hamilton
Not on my team: J. Upton
Not on any team: Zumaya
Sleeper: Greinke
Super Sleeper: Upton
Bust: Lidge
Major Bust: Zimmerman
Rotation: Oswalt, Cain, Wainwright, Greinke, Lincecum
Closers: 2.75 R. Soriano, H. Street, Brad Lidge (.75)
Overview:
It is a little known fact that Steve may be one of the best when it comes to draft day. Using his proven strategy of speed in round one and ending with a late round super keeper, this formula has lead to him being among the more consistent managers. We shall see if this trend continues with this year’s last round pick, Nate McClouth.
What Went Right?
Steve used a popular draft day scheme, once all the top tier catchers are gone, punt the position. This has worked with mixed results in the past. He will need to fill the spot in order to keep up in the cumulative categories. Steve accumulated three closers on draft day. The biggest help he received was not being docked a pick for a keeper until round twelve.
What Went Wrong?
Todd Helton and Bobby Abreu were drafted rounds ahead of where they should be. Both have experienced a significant drop in power over the past few years. Neither are the elite player they once were. And this was part of the trend of overvaluing players based on their past performances. There is also a lack in depth to the starting rotation. Most of his starters have yet to prove themselves in the majors, Oswalt being the only exception. The rest went through growing pains over the past two seasons, in particular Greinke.
Hitting Analysis
In true Steve fashion, team speed was high on his agenda. In order to fulfill this desire, he drafted five reliable outlets for that stat. Can Shane Victorino repeat his breakout rookie season? This left a prevalent gap when it comes to power. A maturing Ryan Zimmerman is the most likely candidate to top the thirty homerun mark. Although three of the players do have a legitimate shot at the 20/20 club. Furcal is once again entering a contract year. He has a tendency of picking up his game when it is time to earn his next bloated contract. An aging Helton, bad back and all has become little more than an OBP threat. Despite this, OBP may be a concern for the team as a whole. Regardless, this is a team stocked with run producers, yet few bats to drive them in. McClouth, Upton, Hamilton and Encarnacion are a crap shoot. Three of them will likely find themselves curb side on garbage day.
Pitching Analysis
As the staff is, Oswalt is the only established arm. Lincecum, Wainwright, Greinke and Cain are all on their way to achieving such status. Few would put money against them maturing into future aces, especially with their keeper values. All five starters project to respectable ratios with 150 strikeouts thrown in.
There is a lack of depth in the rotation, to be filled out with a generous helping of whores and spot starters. However, Steve’s has a history of making few roster moves. A seemingly solid bullpen, until one digs a little deeper. Lidge and Soriano, two players who have a history of injury along with Street who has trade rumors swirling amid Oakland’s latest fire sale. Zumaya will occupy what could prove to be a valuable DL slot all season. While he has potential as a 2009 keeper, there are four better candidates on line ahead of him.
Overall/Prediction
Although it is often easy to bash the picks he has made over the years, Steve’s track record begs to differ. Look for Steve to compete at times, perhaps even close to the money. In the end, the lack of offensive pop will keep him relegated to the middle of the pack.