2008 Buffalo Keeper League Team Draft Analysis
“Putting the Anal back in Analysis”
Chris Michel
Raining Chimp
History
Exp: 12th Original Member of the League
Titles: 1 2001
Avg Finish: 9.6 (9th)
Best: 1st 2001
Worst: 14th 2007
Average Moves: 87 (2nd)
Average Trades: 4.6 (8th-t)
2007 Finish: 14th
2007 #1: Vlad Guerrero
2007 #18: Nick Johnson
2006 #1: Manny Ramirez
2006 #18: Jose Contreras
Stats
Pick: 2nd
Overall Rating: 3.16 (1st)
Offense
: 3.10 (3rd)
Infield + Catcher: 3.09 (4th)
Outfield + Utility: 3.11 (2nd)
Pitching
: 3.21 (3rd)
Starting: 3.10 (6th)
Closing: 3.54 (7th)
TDA in a Nutshell:
Keepers: Hafner 6, Jose Reyes 7, Ben Sheets 8, Pedro Martinez 12
Blue Chip: (1) Ryan Howard
Best Pick: Randy Johnson
Worst Pick: Francisco Rodriguez
Overrated: Torii Hunter
Underrated: Josh Willingham
Not on my team: Bartolo “Marshmello” Colon
Not on any team: John Patterson
Sleeper: Scott Baker
Super Sleeper: Randy Johnson
Bust: Pedro
Major Bust: Vernon Wells
Rotation: Halladay, Sheets, Pedro, Randy, Baker
Closers: 2.0 K-Rod, George Sherrill
Overview:
One of the most volatile managers, Michel has always preferred the drastic over the rational. Such has been his fantasy baseball strategy for over a decade now. Yo-yoing up and down through the standings, he has recently spent more time in the basement than a top the league. Michel once again plods into the season with plenty of call backs and a full array of high risk/high reward players.
What Went Right?
Michel has often turned a blind eye to the possible downside of a player, while emphasizing the potential. His last three picks are a testament to that. Colon, Patterson and Jason Schmidt all have their best days behind them and are injury ridden. If one were to hit though, they will be a fantastic addition to this team. Another player and former fetish is J.D. Drew. Bad back. Bad shoulder. A descent fourteenth round pick. Considering ten years ago Michel would have drafted him in round four. See Rick Ankiel.
What Went Wrong?
Trying to ignite a closer run in round three, Michel charged off a cliff with only one other team following suit. As is typical with Michel, he drafted a lot of players with injuries and chronic problems. Colon will most likely need his foot amputated due to his rampant diabetes at some point this year. Blalock, another player Michel convinced himself into drafting would have easily slipped two to three rounds had he not been scooped up in the eleventh. Trying to draft Ty Willington instead of Josh Willingham in round nine is the biggest draft day blunder since the OoseMoose fiasco some years ago.
Hitting Analysis
2008 is the year of the call back for the Chimp franchise. Willingham, Wells and Drew were all brought back, even though he found most of them to be infuriating in the past. Ryan Howard is a stud at first base. Hafner saw his power numbers slashed by fifty percent in 2007 and hopes to rebound at least to the thirty homerun plateau. Wells was hampered by injury the entire 2007 season, having recovered from surgery he is once again in line to pick up where he left off. Hunter blew up in 2007, posting a career year. Now fat with money and in a potent lineup, he is a prime candidate to underachieve in 2008. OBP will pose a considerable concern in the lineup. Cancers like Wells, Pudge and Hunter will all eat away at the gains made by Howard and Hafner. The bulk of stolen bases will come from Jose Reyes. Alone he will vault Michel to the middle of the pack, barring a groin or hamstring injury. Hunter will contribute as many as he feels like, tossing in at least ten. Theriot will chime in with at least twenty, provided he gets the playing time to do so. Michel has not had a good track record with Cubs middle infielders as he once hitched his cart to rookie phenom to be, Bobby Hill. In all likelihood the Chimp will grow weary and impatient with Theriot and cast him off before he has the opportunity to make a splash.
Pitching Analysis
It has been a long standing fantasy dream to have Pedro and Randy in the same rotation. With both now in the twilight of their careers Michel has seen that dream come true ten years late. Halladay is an ace. His wins and ratio numbers make it easy to overlook the sub par total of strikeouts. Ben Sheets and his injury concerns are always troubling. He has been anything but reliable as he tries to regain the magic of 2004. A year where he amassed one quarter of his career strikeouts. Twins starter Scott Baker is another call back and a fetish in the making. He hopes to build on the moderate success in 2007, but remains a bottom of the rotation option. Patterson and Colon have already punched out. For the meanwhile, Michel is biding his time with Jason Schmidt to be put on the disabled list and eject him before the first of May.
In the bullpen, K-Rod is as solid and reliable as they come. In a contract year, look for him to post the same numbers the Angels have grown accustomed to. George Sherrill seems to have the O’s job locked up for now. With options in the pen like Chad Bradford, he will be given a considerable length of rope to hang himself with.
Overall/Prediction
Who would have figured that using the Chimp-o-metrix rating system that Michel’s team would come out rated first overall. This system has been hit or miss, with Michel walking back to the dug out more often; bat in hand, than trotting around the bases. Look for Michel to run his mouth a lot and end up with more players on the disabled list than active roster.