Tim Shand

Mets®

History

Exp: 7th
Titles: 0
Avg Finish: 8.0 7th
Best: 3rd 2003
Worst: 11th 2005
Average Moves: 54
Average Trades: 5.0
2008 Finish: 10th, 70 Pts.
2008 #1: Grady Sizemore
2008 #20: Johnny Cueto
2007 #1: Roy Oswalt
2007 #18: Ryan Braun*

Stats:

Years: 6
Total Runs: 4,977 Total HR: 1,178 Total RBI: 4,471
Total SB: 653 OBP: .352 Total W: 495
Total Sv. 397 Total K: 6,753 ERA: 3.91
WHIP: 1.33
Total Fantasy Points: 516.5

Adjusted Average Season Total*:

ADJ R: 836 ADJ HR: 209 ADJ RBI: 845
ADJ SB: 109 ADJ OBP: .343
ADJ W: 70 ADJ SV: 59 ADJ K: 982
ADJ ERA: 3.81 ADJ WhIp: 1.28
Adjusted Point Total: 82.4

Historic Fantasy Score:

182/300 12th/30 Teams Stats Exist For

Chimp-o-Metrix Rating:

Pick: #1
*’s: None
Overall Rating/08: 2.82/2.94

Offense: 3.14/2.89
Infield + Catcher: 3.57/2.89
Outfield + Utility: 2.70/2.88

Pitching: 2.49/2.99
Starting: 2.74/3.12
Closing: 1.75/2.58

TDA in a Nutshell:

Keepers: Kinsler 2, Cabrera 5, Hawpe 8, Bruce 16
Blue Chip (4.0+): Hanley Ramirez, Ian Kinsler
Best Pick: Kuroda 15th Worst Pick: Iannetta 10th
Overrated: Hawpe Underrated: Meche
Not on my team: Wolf Not on any team: Ian Stewart
Sleeper: Arrendo Super Sleeper: Spilboroghs
Bust: Josh Johnson Major Bust: Corey Hart
Rotation: Wainright, Meche, Kuroda, Wolf, Maholm, Josh Johnson
Closers: 1.0 Lidge

Overview:

With the start of a new season, teams and owners a like get a fresh start. Not so much for Shand who continues to trot out the bored and tired Mets® moniker year after year. Shand has been mired in a slump over the past five years, finishing sixth once while normally ending up in the ninth to eleventh bracket. His third place money finish of 2003 a very distant memory. Now armed with a true super keeper to be in Bruce along with the usual cast of characters he is known for, little Timmy Shand is hoping for a change of luck in 2009.

What Went Right?

Player by player this was one of Shand’s better drafts. Three fourths of the keepers are solid, however a 2nd round value for Ian Kinsler is a tad high for most managers liking. The value of Cabrera and Bruce more than make up for this deficiency. Shand managed to avoid temptation, fishing for prospects. Carlos Maybin, perhaps the most highly touted rookie coming into the season was not taken until round thirteen. Tommy Hanson, pitcher for the Braves did not go until the seventeenth round. Hanley Ramirez was the consensus number one over all pick. Bringing an end to the reign of Pujols and A-Rod jockeying for the title. This is a team with numerous star players along with fantasy role players. The middle of the rotation is sold. Randy Wolf makes for a very interesting twentieth pick. Shand is hoping that he will have enough in the tank to throw a solid season, earn a spot as a nineteenth round keeper and promptly blow his arm out next spring. Arrendo would have made for a good fifteenth rounder, in line for closing duties should Fuentes falters, but Shand will never find that out. He was dumped for rehabbing teammate Kelvim Escobar.

What Went Wrong?

With one closer, Shand is thankful that Robz has punted the position. This will allow him to earn an additional crucial point and a two in the category. The team lacks a number one starter. A pitcher who will go out, strike out ten and win a game. Pushing the burden onto two and three fantasy starters to step up their respective games. Iannetta was over valued and will sink into the mix of catcher’s with twenty homerun pop, but the ability to only drive in sixty over the course of a season. Hawpe also slides into the over valued category. Despite the increased role he will see with Holliday’s departure, he remains a mediocre slugger kept in a round that saw several duplicate players go.

 

Hitting Analysis

Of the starting ten, nine have a minimum of twenty homerun power. The big bat belonging of Miguel Cabrera who projects to go off from anywhere between thirty-five and forty. The exception, young Carlos Maybin who projects more as a speed player than a power hitter. Maybin adds to the diversified base stealing corps. Shand will not be relying on one Willie Tavares type player as a sole source of steals. The team has sound run production; once again the bulk of the load will fall upon Mag’s and Mig’s. Corey Hart is now a legitimate 20/20 candidate, having reached that mark in back to back season. He has yet learned how to take a pitch and has an anemic OBP to show for it. Hanley is the new A-Rod-lite. Better speed, less power and a lower OBP. It will be a disappointing bust of a season if he does not go 30/30. All around this is one of the better infields in the game. Cabrera is a waste of his third base eligibility as he is currently stationed at first. Kinsler is on the upward arc of his career path, donating good power and speed from a position that is historically known for only speed. Stewart was caught in a numbers game and replaced by Adrian Beltre; one of the most inconsistent and frustrating players in the history of sport. Hawpe is a moderate slugger; his respectable OBP helps his value. Jay Bruce will get a shot at sticking with the Reds for a full season. He showed good power numbers in a partial 2008 and hopes to step it up during a full time second stint. Spilboroghs has produced in a limited role in the past and is yet another player who has earned a full time job in 2009.

Pitching Analysis

Where is the ace? The most likely candidate to answer the question is Adam Wainright. A strong 2007 and injury shorted 2008, he has a major jump to make in order to spring from a mid level fantasy starter to a legitimate number one stud. Prevalent in the rotation are pitchers who could be described as aces, but play on terrible teams. Gil Meche in KC and Paul Maholm in Pittsburgh. Meche struck out 180 batters last year, earning $22 million dollars for 23 wins over the past two seasons. Josh Johnson has been hurt for most of his pro career, he may have the potential to be an ace, but he is buried in a very deep Marlin rotation. Kuroda is a strong mid level fantasy starter who can be infuriating to own. A manager must be patient with him. He will give you solid numbers by years end, but wins and k’s can be scarce. Randy Wolf continues his mercenary career. He still boasts a high strike out rate, while possessing an equally high injury rate. The bullpen is lead and is finished by Brad Lidge. A perfect 2008 season en route to the World Series, he has been a pitcher with some injury troubles as well. Arrendo was a good pick and would have served as heir apparent to Fuentes who has been inconsistent and is moving to a much more difficult league. It is almost a certainty that he would have at least scavenged some saves over the long season, but for not. Thus, all closing duties will fall upon Lidge’s right shoulder. Tommy Hanson was a move to the future. Tim likely will not see any returns on this investment until late 2009, early 2010.

Overall/Prediction

Some managers prefer offense while others prefer pitching. For 2009 Shand seems abandoned pitching all together. One can not doubt the names and resume’s of the offense. The starting rotation and bullpen have some major concerns. It is doubtful with the staff as constructed will have enough gas to get Shand over the finish line in the money. Should he trade some of his offense he may be able to obtain the arm or two that he needs. It is important if the season starts poorly for Shand not to give up on the young talent as he did last year with Cueto. A 2010 lineup with keepers Cabrera 4, Bruce 15 Maybin 12 and Hanson 16 will be much stronger building blocks for a championship than this current lineup as it stands.

On Deck: Bill J. Mauger