2008 Buffalo Keeper League Team Draft Analysis
“Putting the Anal back in Analysis”
Casey
Ruff’s Riders
History
Exp: 3rd
Titles: 0
Avg Finish: 12.0 (15th)
Best: 8th 2007
Worst: 16th 2006
Average Moves: 58 (9th-t)
Average Trades: 2.0 (14th)
2007 Finish: 8th
2007 #1: Bobby Abreu
2007 #18: Tom Gorzelanny
2006 #1: Vladimir Guerrero
2006 #18: Frank Thomas
Stats
Pick: 8th
Overall Rating: 3.05 (4th)
Offense
: 3.14 (1st)
Infield + Catcher: 3.65 (2nd)
Outfield + Utility: 2.63 (11th)
Pitching
: 2.95 (9th-t)
Starting: 3.18 (3rd)
Closing: 2.27 (13th)
TDA in a Nutshell:
Keepers: Jake Peavy 6, Victor Martinez 7, Uggla 9, Papelbon 16
Blue Chip: Pujols, (4) V. Martinez, Peavy and Papelbon
Best Pick: Pujols 1st
Worst Pick: Tejada 4th
Overrated: Dontrelle Willis
Underrated: Wandy Rodriguez
Not on my team: Xavier Nady
Not on any team: Robertson
Sleeper: Wandy Rodriguez
Super Sleeper: Marquis
Bust: Tejada
Major Bust: Uggla
Rotation: Peavy, Willis, Meche, Felix Hernandez, W. Rodriguez, Lester
Closers: 1.0 Papelbon
Overview:
Entering his third year of major league competition, the plucky youngster has stuck with it, making strides towards improvement. 2007 was a year of many lessons. One being not to make side bets with Michel, because he will not pay them until the next year’s draft.
What Went Right?
The twinge in Pujols’ elbow scared away the first seven owners, when he is normally a number one or two pick overall. At the eighth overall pick, he was too good to pass up. He joins three other players ranked as blue chippers on the Chip-o-metrix rating system. Felix Hernandez has been billed as the second coming of Pedro. He fizzled out during 2007 and is due to be unleashed without restraints in 2008. Jon Lester has been billed as a top starter and is back on pace now that he has shaken the pesky cancer bug. Maybin has also been highly touted, but will begin the year in the minors. Wandy Rodriguez looks to make the leap from whore starter, to regular member of the rotation.
What Went Wrong?
Casey did not draft a closer, relying on keeper Papelbon to boost case to twelfth place in the saves category. The Orioles smarted shipped Tejada to Houston before the ‘roids allegations could break. Casey promptly drafted him in round four, with the short left field porch in Enron field too much to pass up. Dontrelle Willis was slaughtered in the NL last season. While still experiencing glimpses of his stellar 2005 campaign, he moves to a pitcher’s park, but a hitter’s league. The best hope for Dontrelle is that he gets in enough games to qualify as a utility player, becoming the first double threat in fantasy baseball history.
Hitting Analysis
Albert Pujols’ numbers dropped by seventeen homeruns and thirty RBI from ‘06 to 07. He still managed 32/100/.429, a successful season for anyone other than him. Manny is entering a contract year, so look for more of Manny just being Manny. The difference being he wants to get paid. Uggla may be the best power hitting second basemen since Jeff Kent’s body started to deteriorate. Tejada moves from a band box in the AL to another one in the NL. Even without the HGH he should be able to loft lazy fly balls over the left field wall. Duncan seems to be a solo shot artist, managing only forty-three RBI with his twenty-two homeruns. Overall, Casey has eight starters with a legitimate shot at the twenty-five homerun mark, while driving in plenty of runs too. Beltre and Uggla are the only two blemishes on what would be a tremendous OBP team. Speed is non existent. Xavier Nady has grown into the poster child of the Pittsburgh Pirates franchise (like DeJesus in KC). Mediocre slugger with a little bit of pop, it will disgust Casey everyday that he has to check Nady’s stats. Maybin will not be given a chance to prove anything. He was dropped before the season began.
Pitching Analysis
Aside from Penny and Hernandez, Casey’s staff reads like a Who’s Who of 2007 Whores. Most teams had a finger or two in Wandy Rodriguez, got a good string of starts, got burned and put him out to the curb. Meche, Robertson and Marquis are nothing special, but managed to piece together a solid 2007 season. Volquez will not be on the roster long enough to make a difference. Papelbon has developed into the new Gagne when discussing dominant closers.
Overall/Prediction
After two years of a building, the pieces are in place for a run. A strong offense will power Casey past last year’s eighth place finish. However it is failure to account for saves and stolen bases that will prevent him from being relevant.