2008 Buffalo Keeper League Team Draft Analysis
“Putting the Anal back in Analysis”
Eric Hall
Save the Gauze
History
Exp: 3rd
Titles: 0
Avg Finish: 10.5 (11th)
Best: 6th 2007
Worst: 15th 2006
Average Moves: 64 (8th)
Average Trades: 4.0 (11th)
2007 Finish: 6th
2007 #1: Albert Pujols
2007 #18: Aaron Cook
2006 #1: Jimmy Rollins
2006 #18: Chad Qualls
Stats
Pick: 5th
Overall Rating: 2.62 (13th)
Offense
: 2.77 (14th)
Infield + Catcher: 2.98 (5th)
Outfield + Utility: 2.55 (12th-t)
Pitching
: 2.48 (14th)
Starting: 3.31 (2nd)
Closing: 0.00 (15th)
TDA in a Nutshell:
Keepers: Dunn 3, Kendrick 9, Snell 11, Tim Hudson 15
Blue Chip: (1) Hanley Ramirez
Best Pick: Lackey 5th
Worst Pick: A. Gordon 4th
Overrated: Chamberlain
Underrated: Dustin McGowan
Not on my team: Jerry Owens
Not on any team: Corey Patterson
Sleeper: Boof Bonser
Super Sleeper: Corey Patterson
Bust: Kemp
Major Bust: Gordon
Rotation: Lackey, Hudson, Arroyo, Chamberlain, Snell
Closers: None
Overview:
Entering the league in 2006, Hall had his head held high. After six months of pummeling he ended the year with his tail between his legs. In his second season, a year wiser, Hall surprised all the pundits with a sixth place finish. The question for 2008 is which Hall will show up to play this year.
What Went Right?
Hall began the draft in proper fashion, drafting five tool shortstop Hanley Ramirez. Justin Morneau, coming off a sub par season, by his standards was taken second. Jon Lackey is poised to be a strong fourth round keeper in 2009, unless he is called into Dr. Andrews’s office. Michal Owings, 2007 whore is in line to start his first full season in the rotation.
What Went Wrong?
Eric is yet another manager who fell into the easy trap of overvaluing young talent. This was exacerbated when they were taken in deep positions. Alex Gordon put together an impressive rookie season, but he was not good enough to garner a fourth round pick. The same goes for Matt Kemp. It is always a poor decision to draft a rookie or second year player ahead of proven veteran talent. It may be argued that Hall was trawling for super keepers, but when they are taken in the first five rounds they really do not have much value. He is also the only team punting the save category, having not drafted a closer.
Hitting Analysis
The majority of Hall’s lineup consists of young hitters who have the tendency of being impatient at the plate and putting up a poor OBP. As the season progress, Alex Gordon and the twenty-four homeruns he hits will further prove why one ought not to take a second year third basemen in round two. Unless they are Pujols. Speed will come almost exclusively from Hanley Ramirez and Jerry Owens. Owens has to first overcome the obstacles of regular playing time and getting on base when he does.
The lineup is filled out with a solid core of Morneau, Ramirez and Dunn. What are lacking are the second tier players. The rest of the roster could be dropped without a garbage picker even stopping to look. Hot shot shortstop Ansdrubal Cabrera was a highly touted prospect. He will need to learn to steal bases to become a worthwhile commodity. He stole none in 159 at bats last year. Kemp projects to a 20/20 hitter. Just like Andre Eithier did last year. Carlos Ruiz is not a plausible solution at catcher and will be the first in a line of fill-ins.
Pitching Analysis
In 2007 Tim Hudson experienced a rejuvenation that few players experience. Will the same Hudson show up for 2008 or will the 2006 version come to stay. Ian Snell has shown good progression and is on the upward arc of his career. McGowan was an interesting pick, experiencing mild success in his first year as a starter. Hall has a stable full of inning eaters. The aforementioned pitchers and Bronson Arroyo. Whether the innings will be doughnuts or crooked numbers is debatable. Boof and Michah are trying to establish themselves in the early stages of their respective careers. Most likely both will not make it through the season on this roster. Chamberlain has been brilliant in a very limited role with the Yankees. Now asked to step into the starting role, Joba will experience growing pains.
The bullpen is non existent until Chamberlain ascends to Rivera’s role as closer. This probably will not happen until 2009 or 10. By then, as a sixth round keeper, he will not be worth being kept.
Overall/Prediction
It is still too early in his fantasy career to determine whether the sixth finish or the fifteenth place finish will be the norm for all. Whichever direction he takes, a third year manager in this league should know better than to completely disregard saves. In the end, his team name may be appropriate. In addition to the gauze he may need to trade for a tourniquet.