2008 Buffalo Keeper League Team Draft Analysis
“Putting the Anal back in Analysis”
Dan
Big City Blue hairs
History
Exp: 4th
Titles: 0
Avg Finish: 6.0(4th)
Best: 5th 2007
Worst: 7th 2006
Average Moves: 58(9th)
Average Trades: 5.7(5th)
2007 Finish: 5th
2007 #1: Derek Jeter
2007 #18: Fernando Rodney
2006 #1: Roy Oswalt
2006 #18: Matt Murton
Stats
Pick: 15th
Overall Rating: 2.97(7th)
Offense
: 2.86(9th-t)
Infield + Catcher: 2.94(7th)
Outfield + Utility: 2.78(10th)
Pitching
: 3.08(6th)
Starting: 2.44(14th)
Closing: 5.00(1st-t)
TDA in a Nutshell:
Keepers: Joe Nathan 4, Jorge Posada 5, J. Soria 10, Griffey 17
Blue Chip: None
Best Pick: CM Wang 8th
Worst Pick: Chipper Jones 3rd
Overrated: Fukodome
Underrated: Sheffield
Not on my team: W. Tavares
Not on any team: Capuano
Sleeper: U. Jimenez
Super Sleeper: Chuck James
Bust: Fukodome
Major Bust: Magglio Ordonez
Rotation: Wang, Ubaldo, C. James, Orlando Hernandez, Capuano
Closers: 3.0 Nathan, Soria, Hoffman
Overview:
Having entered the league three years ago, Dan has three times consecutively made a splash, finishing around the money all three seasons. Now in his senior year, Dan looks to catapult himself into the upper echelon of the league.
What Went Right?
With most teams, the lure of the Super Keeper was too much avoid. Dan was able to focus his draft on proven talent for the majority of early rounds, digging into the prospect bin late in the draft. Notable were the three closers he walked away with. This showed complete disregard for the gentlemen’s agreement and simple mathematics: 30 major league closers divided by the 15 teams in the league equals 2 closers per team.
Fukodome was a surprise pick. No one is quite able to forecast his potential on this side of the Pacific, yet he was taken past the midpoint of the draft. A good selection by that time.
What Went Wrong?
Many of us remember our first crush. Dan’s still chasing her. Her name is Chipper Jones and it has developed into a full blown fetish. This has to stop. Last year Dan eloped with Chipper in the second round. This year he held off a bit, taking him with the first pick of the third round. Although he once again has third base eligibility and added value, this should not happen unless you have been diagnosed by a trained and qualified professional. Adding to the list of almost washed up major leaguers that peaked five years ago is Jeff Kent. Now a shell of his former self, but with some pop left. There were far better options at second base available in round nine. Furthermore Dan has drafted a number of players following career years: Magglio in round one, Posada a keeper at five. Both of these individuals will have a difficult time justifying their worth.
Hitting Analysis
Dan’s team has good power. Six players project to hit the twenty homerun mark. However the ceiling seems to be thirty, a mark that was only eclipsed by Griffey last year. This is also a team that is a nagging, year long injury away from happening. A grenade with the pin pulled out. Derek Lee has not been quite the same player since his injury, now two years removed. While Posada posted great numbers across the board for a backstop, his power stats actually decreased. The only increase was the runs scored, due to his higher OBP. Mag’s 139 RBI will likely decrease, but an upswing from Sheffield should balance that out. Do not rely on him swiping twenty bases again. Cabrera has relocated once again, this time to South Chicago where a less aggressive base running style is employed. Tavares will get his steals so long as he is given the playing time to do so.
Pitching Analysis
Chien-Ming Wang is not your prototypical fantasy ace. He wins, gives strong ratios and refuses to strike batters out. Orlando Hernandez is consistently one of three things: a hit, a miss or an injury. By mid June he will likely be found in heavy rotation on the whore list. Chuck James has run into the injury bug and has not been as effective as he was the second half of ‘06.
The stars of the pitching staff are in the bullpen. Nathan and Hoffman will have closing jobs for life. Soria is a rising start and should convert plenty of saves, provided the Royals can win a few games.
Kennedy, Morales and Jimenez have all pitched fantastic in a limited sample of innings. Dan will need two of them to pan out over the long haul and pitch effectively all season.
Overall/Prediction
In the three years in the league Dan has found things to be relatively easy going. Once again he projects towards the upper half of the league. With the right mix of productive play from the aging stars and development of a few sleepers he could make a run at the title. Maybe then, this torrent love affair with Chipper Jones will mercifully come to an end.