2008 Buffalo Keeper League Team Draft Analysis
“Putting the Anal back in Analysis”
Rob
Slump Extended
History
Exp: 3rd
Titles: 0
Avg Finish: 11.5(14th)
Best: 11th 2007
Worst: 12th 2006
Average Moves: 29 (14th)
Average Trades: 1.0 (15th)
2007 Finish: 11th
2007 #1: Grady Sizemore
2007 #18: Orlando Hudson
2006 #1: Alfonso Soriano
2006 #18: Brandon Claussen
Stats
Pick: 10th
Overall Rating: 3.12 (2nd)
Offense
: 3.01 (5th)
Infield + Catcher: 2.72 (12th)
Outfield + Utility: 3.29 (1st)
Pitching
: 3.24 (2nd)
Starting: 3.04 (8th)
Closing: 3.85 (4th)
TDA in a Nutshell:
Keepers: Sabathia 5, Michael Young 10, Maine 13, Rios 15
Blue Chip: (2) Brandon Webb, J.J. Putz
Best Pick: Webb 2nd
Worst Pick: James (Troy) Loney 6th
Overrated: Michael Young
Underrated: Rios
Not on my team: Glavine
Not on any team: F. Lopez
Sleeper: Fields
Super Sleeper: Zach Duke
Bust: Loney
Major Bust: Rowand
Rotation: Webb, Sabathia, Maine, Bucholtz, Glavine, A. Miller
Closers: 2.0 Putz, C. Cordero
Overview:
Entering his third year of professional competition Rob has taken a number of beatings over the past two years. Once again armed with super keeper Alex Rios, Rob joins the arena of combat.
What Went Right?
Brandon Webb was a gem of a pick in round two. Even with so many keepers toeing the rubber, he is too good of an arm to pass up on. Rob also started the day with no closers but ended with two, despite the shenanigans of other owners. Andrew Miller and Felipe Lopez were well worth their sleeper selection spots. Clay Bucholtz was another pick that may pay off for years to come. Rickie Weeks, though maligned early in 2007 ended strong, however seventh round is a bit on the high side. Zach Duke was worthy twentieth round option.
What Went Wrong?
It is not going out on a limb to state that James Loney, fifteen homeruns in 2007 and loads of potential is not work a sixth rounder. Even if he were to hit thirty homeruns, it probably would not make sense to keep him. McCann was another player he reached for. A common rookie error to take an above average catcher in round four. Especially with the dip in McCann’s numbers for ‘07. It is unfortunate that uber talented corner man Josh fields lost the starting job to Joe Crede. He should be back within a few weeks.
Rob was the only other team to take the bait left by Michel in round three, following suit in what seemed to be a closer run. While Putz may not be the best value, sometimes it is better to have your pick of closers than trying to sort through what is left.
Hitting Analysis
As a senile, now dead old lady once said, “Where’s the beef?” Beltran is the only forty homerun threat. The only thirty-five homerun candidate too. Rios continues to mature and is destined for the 30/20 club. They are the only two standouts on a roster filled with 20/20 candidates. Rob also needs to address the issue of stolen bases at some point. The hope is for Lopez to once again win a job and steal forty to fifty bases in 2008. Rowand hit twenty-seven home runs at the new little league stadium in Philly. Moving across the country to San Francisco will not help his power. Also, one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game should have more than fifty-four stolen bases in nearly eight seasons of play. OBP remains a concern. Normally a team with such OBP cancers like Felipe Lopez, Hardy and Soriano will need a stud 400 OBP player to balance them out. Rob does not have this luxury. McCann tailed off drastically, dipping almost seventy OBP points and six homeruns. His runs and RBI remained consistent though, encouraging sign.
Pitching Analysis
Rob is among very few managers with two bonafide top end starters in Sabathia and Webb. Added to the mix is Jon Maine who has been very effective once he earned a spot in the rotation. Bucholtz has thrown well in over a limited sample. The jury may not be back on Andrew Miller for two or three years. Zach Duke forgot how to pitch over the 06/07 winter. A common theme for the Pirates (see Oliver Perez).
The bullpen is solid, lead by J.J. Putz. Rumors have been circulating over Chad Cordero in Washington. With a deal looming, Rob needs to locate and develop more options.
Overall/Prediction
Steve ranked very highly based on the Chimp-o-metrix rating system. A mixed blessing as Michel has not faired too well of late. The most interesting fact is Steve being the only manager to have two J.J.’s and two Zach’s on the same roster.
As the seasons grinds on, Steve will need to become a more active player and presence in the league. Otherwise the trend will continue as the some extends yet further.