2008 Buffalo Keeper League Team Draft Analysis
“Putting the Anal back in Analysis”
Adam Kurtz
(anus)(face)
History
Exp: 5th
Titles: 0
Avg Finish: 8.0 (7th)
Best: 4th 2006
Worst: 12th 2007
Average Moves: 47 (12th)
Average Trades: 6.0 (4th)
2007 Finish: 12th
2007 #1: Carlos Beltran
2007 #18: Sammy Sosa*
2006 #1: Pedro Martinez
2006 #18: Trot Nixon
Stats
Pick: 3rd
Overall Rating: 2.95 (8th)
Offense
: 2.95 (6th)
Infield + Catcher: 2.85 (9th)
Outfield + Utility: 3.05 (3rd)
Pitching
: 2.95 (9th-t)
Starting: 3.05 (7th)
Closing: 2.63 (10th)
TDA in a Nutshell:
Keepers: David Ortiz 2, Teixeira 4, Jacoby Ellsbury 9, Tulowitski 10
Blue Chip: (2) David Ortiz, Matt Holliday
Best Pick: Fukomori 20th
Worst Pick: G. Sotto 11th
Overrated: Francouer
Underrated: Kaz Matsui
Not on my team: E. Santana
Not on any team: J. Sanchez
Sleeper: Ervin Santana
Super Sleeper: B. Butler
Bust: Lowell
Major Bust: Ellsbury
Rotation: C. Young, Maddux, Francis, E. Santana, Garza, J. Sanchez
Closers: 1.50 Jenks, Betancourt (.25), Fukomori (.25)
Overview:
Now a seasoned veteran and the league’s resident Jew, Adam has experienced moderate success without making a true title run. That being said, Adam hopes to steal success away from the gentiles in a way Jeremy and Scott were never able to.
What Went Right?
David Ortiz was hindered all of 2007, needing knee surgery and still managed to post MVP numbers. Now healthy, look for him to edge closer to the fifty-four he hit in 2006. Adam only drafted one closer; two are on the waiting list for gigs. Kaz Matsui has been a career disappointment, now out of the Big Apple, with a stopover in Colorado; Kaz looks to make a name for himself as something other than the bad Matsui. Regardless, the eighteenth round is a good place for a second basemen with good wheels.
What Went Wrong?
Jacoby Ellsbury was terrific as a September call-up and October hero. Now with a full season ahead of him, opposing pitchers already have the scouting report and can start picking at the holes in his swing. Francouer has been labeled as a great player in batting average leagues, poor in OBP league. He made some strides to correct this, boosting his average by over forty points. He made up for this success by dropping ten homeruns off his total. This should have been a clear cut case of suicide to his fantasy value. Yet Adam still ranked him highly enough to spend a fifth round selection on him.
Hitting Analysis
Ortiz will not be hobbling into 2008 and should be able to punch out forty homeruns with a Papi-load of RBI. Lowell is coming off a career season after one year in Boston. His RBI total will be tough to duplicate, but he will get the opportunities. Tulowitski also hopes for similar success his second time through the season. There is an apparent lack of speed. Matsui is the only true base stealer, but his career has been inconsistent. Hot shot youngster Jacoby Ellsbury helps to fill the void. Holliday is still another hitter coming off of a career year. The thirty-seven homeruns should be easy to duplicate, but there will be considerable difficulty driving in 137 again. Teixeira is in a contract year, so the sky is the limit for his numbers and the salary he will rake in for 2009. Billy Butler has been high on every prognosticators list despite his childish name. A thirteenth round pick sounds about right for him.
Pitching Analysis
With no true ace on the roster, Adam will be asking his second and third tier pitchers to step up their game. The most likely candidate and opening day starter is Chris Young of the Padres. Statistically he has the ERA, WHIp and K’s to ascend to that level, but lacks the wins for whatever reason. Maddux continues to chug along, showing no signs of breaking down or even the slightest hint of an injury bug. Maddux has thrown two hundred or more innings eighteen out of the past twenty years. The two seasons he did not top that mark, 2002 with 199 1/3 innings and 2007 with 198 innings. Francis is on the upswing of his career, twenty wins may not be too far of a stretch. Garza remains unrealized potential, while Erwin Santana is an absolute enigma.
Adam has a strong bullpen, but only one closer to start the season. The sixth, seventh and eighth innings are slated to be worked by Nehshek, Fukomori and Bettencourt. It is only a matter of time before Cleveland refuses to tolerate Joe Borowski any longer and give the closing role to Bettencourt. Fukomori will finish with a handful of saves in Texas.
Overall/Prediction
Statistically Adam is the most balanced team in the league. However with the ratings done by a Chimp, there has to be a few holes in the system. Inevitably it will be pitching that lets him down. Also, God will not allow someone who was directly responsible for the death of his only Son to win this league.